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Technical Analysis
One of the underlying tenets of technical analysis is that historical price action
predicts future price action. Since the forex is a 24-hour market, there tends to be
a large amount of data that can be used to gauge future price activity, thereby
increasing the statistical significance of the forecast. This makes it the perfect
market for traders that use technical tools, such as trends, charts and indicators.
It is important to note that, in general, the interpretation of technical analysis
remains the same regardless of the asset being monitored. There are literally
hundreds of books dedicated to this field of study, but in this tutorial we will only
touch on the basics of why technical analysis is such a popular tool in the forex
market.
As the specific techniques of technical analysis are discussed in other tutorials,
we will focus on the more forex-specific aspects of technical analysis.
Minimal Rate Inconsistency
There are many large players in the forex market, such as hedge funds and large
banks, that all have advanced computer systems to constantly monitor any
inconsistencies between the different currency pairs. Given these programs, it is
rare to see any major inconsistency last longer than a matter of seconds. Many
traders turn to technical analysis because it presumes that all the factors that
influence a price - economic, political, social and psychological - have already
been factored into the current exchange rate by the market. With so many
investors and so much money exchanging hands each day, the trend and flow of
capital is what becomes important, rather than attempting to identify a mispriced
rate.
Trend or Range
One of the greatest goals of technical traders in the FX market is to determine
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whether a given pair will trend in a certain direction, or if it will travel sideways
and remain range-bound. The most common method to determine these
characteristics is to draw trend lines that connect historical levels that have
prevented a rate from heading higher or lower. These levels of support and
resistance are used by technical traders to determine whether or not the given
trend, or lack of trend, will continue.
Generally, the major pairs - such as the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and
GBP/USD - have shown the greatest characteristics of trend, while the currency
pairs that have historically shown a higher probability of becoming range-bound
have been the currency crosses (pairs not involving the U.S. dollar). The two
charts below show the strong trending nature of USD/JPY in contrast to the
range-bound nature of EUR/CHF. It is important for every trader to be aware of
the characteristics of trend and range, because they will not only affect what
pairs are traded, but also what type of strategy should be used. (To learn more
about this subject, see Trading Trend Or Range?)
Common Indicators
Technical traders use many different indicators in combination with support and
resistance to aid them in predicting the future direction of exchange rates. Again,
learning how to interpret various technical indicators is a study unto itself and
goes beyond the scope of this tutorial. If you wish to learn more about this
subject, we suggest you read our technical analysis tutorial.
A few indicators that we feel we should mention, due to their popularity, are:
Bollinger bands, Fibonacci retracement, moving averages, moving average
convergence divergence (MACD) and stochastics. These technical tools are
rarely used by themselves to generate signals, but rather in conjunction with
other indicators and chart patterns.
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